Simulating migratory pest insect adaptation to climatic variability

Migratory insects can respond quickly to climatic variability, therefore accurate migration simulations are needed to inform agricultural producers of estimated pest management consequences of climate risks. The HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model was applied to simulate migratory flight patterns of the fall armyworm moth (Spodoptera frugiperda) in the USA. We compared continental-scale patterns of simulated fall armyworm moth migration and actual moth trap data from the PestWatch database to evaluate model performance. Improvement in insect migration models will aid prediction of climate-induced changes in pest distributions and design of proactive control strategies against anticipated pest insect invasions.