15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

3.4

Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) applied to Portuguese temperature and precipitation amount series

Silvia L. Antunes, Meteorological Institute, Lisbon, Portugal; and H. O. Pires and A. Rocha

The climatic variability of mean air temperature and precipitation amount in Portugal is analysed using singular spectral analysis methods - SSA - of the longest time series (some with more than 120 years). The results are compared to those obtained by other methods - Tuckey, Welch and MEM - and reported in previous papers.

First SSA results are consistent with those obtained by previous methods: In the mean annual air temperature, besides an increasing trend, and red noise behaviour, it is possible to detect periodicity characteristics, that differ significantly from what should be expected from realisations of simple white or red noise processes. In precipitation amount there is not any detectable long-term significant trend and the time series do not differ significantly from what should be expected from realisations white noise processes.

Session 3, Time series
Wednesday, 10 May 2000, 8:40 AM-9:58 AM

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