ISO Perspective, Short-Term

ISO New England manages the region's high voltage transmission system and the orderly dispatch of more than 350 generating units to meet instantaneous consumer electrical demand. An accurate day-ahead forecast for each hour is essential to ensuring a reliable and economic dispatch.

Daniel O'Connor is a senior analyst in the ISO's forecasting sub-group within its System Planning department. Dan is responsible for creating long-run energy forecasts for each of the six New England states, and providing technical support for the next day operations forecast models.

Dan's presentation will discuss how the ISO predicts day-ahead aggregate electrical demand for over 6.5 million business and residential accounts. The discussion will include an overview of essential weather concepts, the types of forecast models utilized, how the ISO combines model results into an ensemble forecast, seasonal weather sensitivity, and suggestions for improving weather products.