The National Weather Service (NWS) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is implementing a pilot project to provide a range of inflows into selected reservoirs in its area. To prepare these forecasts, the LMRFC is using the Ensemble Prediction System (ESP) to forecast a range of flows up to 90 days in the future. ESP is part of the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Version 5.0.

ESP provides a forecasted range of flows based on current soil moisture conditions and historical rainfall data. These forecasts include probability of exceedance; flow probabilities for a day, week, or month; and a distribution of possible flows based on current soil moisture conditions. At LMRFC, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 90-day probability forecasts of rainfall are incorporated into these forecasts.