A regional spectral climate model (the Florida State University Nested Regional Spectral Model) has been used together with an enhanced version of BATS for seasonal simulations over the southern United States. A simple "surface ensemble" technique has been developed to better evaluate the spatial variation of response to uncertainties in the initial soil moisture profile. The modeling system also is conducive to detailed examination of surface moisture budgets over specific subregions or river basins. Results focusing on the lower Mississippi River basin will be presented.