Is there a correlation between synoptic activity and ice divergence in the Cosmonaut Sea?

In the Cosmonaut Sea of Antarctica, a polynya occurs regularly, and is characterized by a pulsation between open and closed phases. In its open phase, reduced sea ice concentration of 30-40% ice cover is seen relative to the 80-90% cover seen in the surrounding pack ice. In the past, this polynya has been theorized to be a sensible heat polynya in which oceanic upwelling is responsible for formation and maintainance. However, recent modeling work by Bailey (2000) shows that, given a minimum oceanic heat flux, a polynya event is associated with atmospheric synoptic activity. In this study, we explore this hypothesis using satellite-derived observations of sea ice cover (e.g., SSM/I) as well as atmospheric reanalysis fields (e.g., ECMWF, NCEP). The use of satellite-derived sea surface temperature fields and/or imagery from synthetic aperture radar in order to independently confirm the polynya's existence is also investigated.