Antarctic mesoscale prediction system (AMPS): A Case Study from the 2000/2001 field season

The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) is a real-time mesoscale numerical weather prediction system applied to the Antarctic, with an emphasis on U.S. Antarctic program operational requirements. The AMPS is based on a modified version of the PSU/NCAR MM5 model. Modifications to MM5 for use in the Antarctic have been developed and verified by members of the Polar Meteorology Group at the Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, while real-time operation of the model and dissemination of the forecast products is coordinated by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology group at NCAR.

A discussion of the model performance during the 2000/01 USAP field season will be presented, including quantitative measures of model skill. Cases for which the AMPS provided successful forecasts as well as cases in which AMPS produced inaccurate forecasts will be described. Problems with AMPS that were identified during the field season will be described and plans for the 2001/02 USAP field season will be presented.