The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System

The support of science operations in Antarctica is critically dependent on accurate regional weather forecasts. To improve the numerical guidance available to scientists in the field (viz. McMurdo Station) and flight forecasters in logistics support, a real-time mesoscale forecasting system has been developed for application over Antarctica. The system employs the Fifth-Generation Penn State University/NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) which yields forecasts twice daily. The model is run in a 3-domain configuration, with horizontal grid sizes of 90 km, 30 km (covering all of the continent), and 10 km (focussing on the McMurdo station area). The model's physical parameterizations are tuned to the polar region, and the system will undergo verification studies over its first two field seasons ('00-'01, '01-'02). The presentation will describe the motivations for the system, system configuration, preliminary results from selected forecast events, and proposed scientific investigations.