A case study of Polar MM5 Usage for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction in the Antarctic: Upper Boundary Condition

Simulations of the synoptic and mesoscale evolution of the atmospheric state over Marie Byrd Land and Siple Coast, West Antarctica, for 8-16 October 1995 will be presented. During this period a number of synoptic scale low pressure systems crossed the Marie Byrd Land coast and moved inland over West Antarctica. A series of numerical experiments using model initial conditions derived from standard atmospheric observations and standard atmospheric observations plus GPS/Met soundings will be presented. The simulations will be performed using the Polar MM5. The result of these experiments will be compared to all available observations, including automatic weather stations, radiosondes, and satellite data. An assessment of the enhanced forecast skill provided by the GPS/Met. observations will be provided.