Extended Abstract (188K)JP1.3
Anticipating and monitoring supercell motion for severe weather operations
Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and M. J. Bunkers
Modeling studies since the early-1980s, field programs such as VORTEX, and recent observational studies indicate that supercell motion can in be anticipated prior to, and monitored during, severe weather operations. These abilities can translate into better forecasts, warnings, and emergency manager and media preparedness. Despite numerous journal articles, conference papers, local training, and COMET computer-based modules, use of new supercell motion techniques remains limited to the Storm Prediction Center and a few forecast offices. One reason for this may be a perceived lack of real-time vertical wind data for the determination of shear, storm-relative helicity, and other derived parameters.
The current study uses two cases (May 30, 1999 and March 26, 2000) to demonstrate how varied data sources are used to anticipate and monitor the potential for supercells, their morphology, and motion. WSR-88D vertical wind profiles, ACARS aircraft winds, and model analysis schemes (e.g. the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System, MAPS) are discussed. The two cases involve supercell motions and morphologies that cannot be anticipated from mean wind techniques, but are clear in a shear-relative framework.
Joint Poster Session 1, Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19 WAF/15 NWP)
Tuesday, 13 August 2002, 3:00 PM-4:30 PM
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