Extended Abstract (36K)3.1
Operational models and performance evaluation at Fleet Numerical
Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. Dickerman, J. Lerner, and M. Swenson
The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) is the Navy's primary operational production center for numerical weather prediction. Modeling operations include the decoding and quality control of millions of satellite and conventional observations of the atmosphere and ocean, and their assimilation into a comprehensive suite of meteorological and oceanographic analysis and forecast systems. Model output is used directly by Navy, Air Force, and NWS forecasters, and as input to a myriad of specialized applications and decision aids.
Users of FNMOC model products range from highly trained meteorological and oceanographic professionals to applications experts with limited knowledge of systems on which the products are based. To make the products more meaningful and useful to this diverse group of users, an ongoing effort is underway to provide a comprehensive system for evaluating the validity and reliability of the analyses and forecasts. Fundamental goals of the evaluation system are to provide baseline performance levels against which new products can be judged, and to provide forecasters with reliable information regarding expected model performance in distinct geographical and synoptic regimes.
The broad spectrum of meteorological and oceanographic models run operationally at FNMOC will be reviewed, with particular emphasis on their interdependencies and the applications they support. Next, qualitative and quantitative aspects of the evaluation system will be described, as will plans for future enhancements.
Session 3, Statistical Evaluation I
Monday, 12 August 2002, 4:30 PM-5:45 PM
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