Extended Abstract (132K)9.3
Probabilistic Convection Initiation Forecasts in Support of IHOP During the 2002 SPC/NSSL Spring Program
Paul R. Janish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, R. Schneider, J. P. Cupo, E. Szoke, J. M. Brown, and C. Ziegler
Since the mid-1990s, SPC and NSSL have participated in annual Spring forecasting and research programs focused on conducting applied meteorological research, development of new and experimental forecasting techniques, and testing new scientific conceptual models and applications for utility in operational forecasting. For the past two years, Spring Program participants have issued forecasts of convection initiation as a catalyst for evaluating new and experimental mesoscale numerical models. The focus of these forecasts during Spring 2002 was to create high resolution probabilistic forecasts of convection initiation in the vicinity of surface boundaries in support of the International H2O Project (IHOP) . These forecasts were produced for a two month period from 1 May - 25 June 2002 across the Southern Plains.
Forecasters and researchers also conducted subjective verification of high resolution operational and experimental numerical models including NCEP's operational Eta model, an experimental Eta model running a Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme at NSSL, Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model from NCEP, and versions of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model from NSSL and FSL. This presentation focuses on key scientific findings and observations made over the past two years as well as an overview of logistical, personnel, planning and verification issues involved in setting up and conducting operations in a collaborative applied research/forecast program. Potential impacts on operational forecast products such as the SPC convective watch, and utility of high resolution numerical models in providing guidance for the creation of such forecasts will also be discussed.
Session 9, Convective Initation
Wednesday, 14 August 2002, 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
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