Ninth Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
    

Session 5

 Forecasting and Evaluation/Verification (Parallel with Sessions 6 & 7)
 Organizers: Dewey E. Harms, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; David R. Rodenhuis, NOAA/NWS/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; Mark T. Surmeier, Headquarters Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE
8:00 AM5.1Forecast Aids to Lessen the Impact of Marine Stratus on San Francisco International Airport  
F. Wesley Wilson, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and D. A. Clark
8:20 AM5.2Preliminary evaluation of a First Guess ceiling forecast at Space Shuttle landing sites  
Timothy D. Oram, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, Houston, TX
8:40 AM5.3Steps to Improve Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts for Aviation  
James J. Gurka, NOAA/NESDIS, Suitland, MD; and F. R. Mosher
9:00 AM5.4A Fuzzy Logic System for the Analysis and Prediction of Cloud Ceiling and Visibility  
Kevin R. Petty, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. B. Carmichael, G. M. Wiener, M. A. Petty, and M. N. Limber
9:20 AM5.5Evaluation of Ceiling and Visibility Prediction: Preliminary Results over California using the Navy's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)  
Daniel A. Geiszler, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, P. Tag, W. Thompson, R. Bankert, and J. Schmidt
9:40 AM5.6AWIPS era real time TAF, FWC, and LAMP ceiling and visibility verification program at WFO Tulsa  
James M. Frederick, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and S. A. Amburn
10:00 AMCoffee Break  
10:20 AM5.7TAF Verification: Performance Measurement or Quality Improvement?  
Kent A. Johnson, MSC, Kelowna, BC, Canada; and U. Gramann
10:40 AM5.8An observations-based, statistical system for short-term probabilistic forecasts of aviation-sensitive weather parameters  
Joby L. Hilliker, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch
5.9A new method for estimating the lifetime of atmospheric features as a function of their vertical scale and its advantage over coherence analysis  
Francis J. Merceret, NASA, Kennedy Space Center, FL; and A. Szpiro
11:00 AM5.10Performance Support Delivery System for Use in Aviation and Range Weather Forecasting. (Fomerly paper 5.17)  
Roger C. Whiton, SAIC, O'Fallon, IL; and L. K. Starlin, R. G. Borchers, and A. A. Guiffrida
11:19 AM5.11Short term forecasting of snowbands using Doppler radar observations and a cloud-scale model  
Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun, N. A. Crook, and R. Rasmussen
11:39 AM5.12FAA Terminal Convective Weather Forecast Algorithm Assessment  
K. E. Theriault, MIT, Lexington, MA; and M. M. Wolfson, B. E. Forman, R. G. Hallowell, M. P. Moore, and R. J. Johnson
11:59 AMLunch Break  
1:29 PM5.13FAA Terminal Convective Weather Forecast benefits analysis  
Jim S. Sunderlin, MCR Federal, McLean, VA; and G. Paull
1:49 PM5.14Improvement of Terminal Area Forecasts  
C. Pan, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and I. Jirak, D. Tucker, D. A. Braaten, P. A. Browning, and D. Beusterien
2:09 PM5.15Wind and Temperature Verification Statistics for the Operational Terminal Area PBL Prediction System at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport  
J. J. Charney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. L. Kaplan, Y. -. L. Lin, K. T. Waight, K. D. Pfeiffer, J. A. Thurman, and C. M. Hill
2:29 PM5.16An evaluation of using lightning data to improve aviation oceanic convective forecasting for the Gulf of Mexico  
Alan Nierow, FAA, Washington, DC; and R. C. Showalter
2:49 PMCoffee Break  
3:09 PM5.17Verification of icing and turbulence forecasts: why some verification statistics can't be computed using PIREPs (Fomerly paper 5.10)  
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Young
3:29 PM5.18A multiple scale precipitation tracking and forecast package  
Janelle M. Janish, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
3:49 PM5.19Convective intercomparison exercise: Baseline statistical results  
Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. Mueller, and J. E. Hart
4:09 PM5.20Natural and triggered lightning forecasts for space shuttle landings  
Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and T. D. Oram
4:29 PM5.21Development of an acoustic ray-trace model, high-resolution boundary-layer measurements, and meso-G scale forecasts driven by off-range, blast-noise management requirements  
Charles A. Clough, U.S Army, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD; and J. K. Luers and E. J. Hall
4:49 PM5.22The 20-km version of the Rapid Update Cycle  
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, G. A. Grell, K. J. Brundage, D. Devenyi, D. Kim, T. G. Smirnova, T. L. Smith, G. A. Manikin, B. E. Schwartz, and S. S. Weygandt
5:09 PM5.23EMC support for aviation forecasting efforts using the Eta model  
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. L. Black and G. DiMego
5:29 PM5.24A sensitivity and benchmark study of RAMS in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System  
Jonathan L. Case, NASA, Kennedy Space Center, and ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati

Thursday, 14 September 2000: 8:00 AM-5:49 PM

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Browse or search the entire meeting