Barry Schwartz 1 * Steven J. Weiss 2 Stan Benjamin 1
1 NOAA/Forecast Systems Laboratory Boulder, Colorado
2 NOAA/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma
The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model was developed at the NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory and has been implemented operationally at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The RUC has a unique role in that it is the only operational system that provides updated national-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) analyses and forecasts more often than once every 6 hours. Forecasters at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) have the national responsibility for monitoring the potential for severe storm formation. Although a large variety of NWP products are available to SPC forecasters, they are only subjectively aware of their usefulness for assessing the development of severe storms. In particular, relatively little objective information is known about the accuracy and reliability of derived parameters from the RUC. In this paper, we will present a preliminary objective assessment of RUC short-range forecast fields used in forecasting convection, such as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), moisture convergence, vertical velocity, and low-level wind shear. Forecasts out to 12-h in advance from 3-h RUC model runs will be evaluated against initial model conditions (analyses) and rawinsonde observations from the 2000 spring-summer convective season. Time permitting, an example of individual forecast case studies will be presented.
* corresponding author: Barry Schwartz, NOAA/FSL, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303 E-mail: schwartz@fsl.noaa.gov; phone: (303) 497-6481 (voice); fax: (303) 497-4176
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