Warning Decision Making Process During the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak

During the afternoon and night of May 3, 1999, a record setting tornadic outbreak occurred across portions of Oklahoma. Several of the tornadoes early on in the event were filmed and broadcast live across national networks. The actions of governmental agencies and the media, as well as the response from the general public has been highly credited with saving numerous lives during the event. As a result, many have the perception that warning operations during the May 3rd event were as clear cut as “shooting fish in a barrel”. Nothing could be further from the truth.

This paper will look at some of the factors involved in the warning process (as presented at the NWS Warning Decision Making Workshops I, II) and address how they were applied on May 3rd. For instance, what was the expectation for severe weather before the event and how did that impact office preparations? What was the impact on staff and resources when a catastrophic event threatened the community in which they live, and did so at the onset of a long duration severe weather outbreak? How did new technology help or hinder the warning process? What strategies for office configuration and operational readiness were employed and how successful were they?

The authors will also address the concept of situation awareness and the role it played in the decisions made and the actions taken during the outbreak.

Finally, every severe weather event offers an opportunity to learn for all those involved. Despite to its recognized “success”, many operational lessons were learned as a result of the May 3rd outbreak. Lessons learned, both good and bad, will be discussed.