Predicting Convective Rainfall Amounts from Lightning Flash Density

This paper presents a method to predict the hourly convective rainfall amounts from lightning flash density and lifted condensation level (LCL) for Canada's Boreal forest based upon conditions around Prince Albert, Saskatchewan. Lightning data was collected from the Saskatchewan's lightning detection network. Hourly lightning flash rates were calculated for a 100 kilometre radius circle around Prince Albert. Hourly temperature, relative humidity and rainfall were measured at Prince Albert. The lifted condensation level (LCL) was then estimated from the observed temperature and humidity. A regression model was then built to predict convective rainfall by using only hours with lightning activity. Lightning density, both positive and negative, and LCL were used as predictors.