A retrospective look at VORTEX: Implications about forecasting

The origins of the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment are reviewed in light of five years of VORTEX field operations and the early reports of scientific analysis of the data in the refereed literature. As the project has proceeded from its conception, through its intial two-year intensive field phase in 1994 and 1995 and subsequent smaller field phases (which are continuing), to the production of scientific results from the observations, it’s clear that considerable evolution of the scientific ideas has occurred. This natural consequence of observations-based science has led to revisions of the questions that tornado scientists are asking, which is seen as a positive outcome and a strong endorsement for observations-based science.

An original motivation for the project was the development of understanding that might lead to improved tornado forecasts and warnings. Further, the initial two-year field phase incorporated some experimental forecasting efforts aimed at exploring some ideas of how to go about tornado forecasting. The results of the field observations and some limited analysis of the experimental forecasting effort have led to mixed results. It appears that results leading to a dramatic improvement in tornado forecasting and warning accuracy will not be forthcoming immediately. Such important topics as convective initiation, tornadogenesis, the impact of capping, mesoscale variability in parameters, and the choice of relevant parameters are clearly critical to the development of forecasting and warning improvements. However, some of the lessons learning in the experimental forecasts are on the verge of operational implementation, and these have been influenced by the evolving scientific results from VORTEX.

It is possible that more positive impacts on forecasting and warning will arise from continuing analysis of the data and continuing small-scale observational experiments. The need for more intensive field operations will be considered, especially in light of persistent obstacles to obtaining certain types of data.