Severe storm modeling after VORTEX: Opportunities and obstacles

Observations of supercells from the VORTEX field program provide a rich and detailed set of wind, precipitation, and surface fields from in and beneath severe thunderstorms. One important use of these data is to help validate cloud- and mesoscale model simulations of these or similar events.

As with the past twenty years, convective storm modeling during the next decade will likely continue to be an important instrument for understanding severe storm and tornado dynamics. The emergence of new data sources such as mobile radars, fixed and mobile mesonets, and improved remote sensing capabilities combined with continued explosion of computational power is presents a potentially fertile environment for rapid advancement of our science. However care is needed to maximize our use of these tools in an effective and responsible manner. This talk will focus on the important contributions storm modeling and modelers could make to our understanding of severe storms and tornadoes as well as point out several obstacles to significant progress. These obstacles are likely to be overcome only via a collaborative effort between modelers and observationalists.