VORTEX and the public: Does what we do matter?

Public support of scientific research involves an implicit agreement that some benefits will accrue to the public from the research. The expected nature of these benefits has changed over time and, currently, lofty statements about "improved knowledge" are insufficient to justify research in the views of many people.

VORTEX, and its follow-on work, has been the largest supported project to study tornadoes ever. What, if any, are or will be the benefits to the public of VORTEX-related work? I see three primary areas in which VORTEX can contribute, one direct and the others, indirect. First, the primary way in which the value of National Weather Service tornado warnings can be improved is by lowering the false alarm rate, not by increasing the lead time beyond the current 11-17 minute range. To do this, we must learn what goes on in the last 10-15 minutes before a tornado forms and, by implication, what goes on in the 10-15 minutes before a tornado does not form.

Indirectly, if VORTEX can help improve the quality of NWS tornado warnings, which are perhaps the single most important product the NWS issues associated with thunderstorms, then it may well improve public confidence in other NWS products, even without a change in their quality! Given that many NWS forecasts are of a high quality, higher public confidence should yield public benefits.

Finally, VORTEX work brings attention to meteorology. Although this attention can be difficult to handle at times, it provides the opportunity for scientists to tell the story of science to the public and to attract bright young people to the field.