The PIONEER project as an example of operational cost analysis

The sustainable management of the coastal zone requires an efficient monitoring system, which combines "intelligent" observation strategies with dynamical models. The European project PIONEER sets up analysis systems for routine day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient distributions in the Odra and Ebro estuaries in Europe. The project integrates presently available technology and methodology in data management, eostatistical and dynamical data assimilation and numerical modelling in co-operation between scientific institutions, management authorities and commercial companies. Point observations together with a "best guess" are processed in a data ssimilation scheme. Three schemes of increasing complexity are explored: simple spatial interpolation, geostatistics and dynamical data assimilation. As a by-product, estimates of the predictability of the estuarine ecosystems on time scales of days and weeks are obtained.