Preliminary results from Polar–Orbiting Satellite Data Assimilation into LAPS with Applications to Mesoscale Modeling of the San Francisco Bay Area

This paper presents preliminary results from an ongoing collaboration between Lockheed Martin, SJSU and FSL. The main goal is the integration of remotely sensed three-dimensional cloud information into an operational mesoscale weather forecast model (MM5). In particular, polar orbiting satellite (POES) data is used to augment the GOES satellite data stream currently in the FSL/LAPS meteorological preprocessor. Resulting fields are then used as the initial and boundary conditions for short-term MM5 weather forecasts.

The current paper reports preliminary results from a series of simulations of the San Francisco Bay area, an area with interesting marine (ocean and bays), topographic (mountain and valley), and urban mesoscale forcings. For example, its coastal fog/stratus intrusions produce the highest frequency of weather related commercial aviation delays in the U.S. We are currently including POES visible 0.62 and 10.8 micron IR channels, along with other data in the set of inputs to the LAPS three-dimensional cloud analysis.

Ultimately the full CREST three-dimensional cloud algorithm will be added as inputs in the form of cloud parameters such as tops, bases, and water/ ice mixes. The POES-LAPS-MM5 linkage will be particularly important in higher latitudes.