The NCSC-PSU Numerical Air Quality Prediction Project: Initial Evaluation, Status, and Prospects

In a cooperative venture between the North Carolina Supercomputing Center (NCSC) and the Dept. of Meteorology at Penn. State. Univ., the first U.S. quasi-operational real-time numerical air quality prediction (NAQP) system was launched during the summer of 1998. Running once daily from about mid-June through the end of September, a closely coupled state-of-science tripartite model, consisting of the PSU/NCAR MM5, the NCSC Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) processing system, and the NCSC Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (MAQSIP), was used to make 48-hour forecasts of surface level and tropospheric ozone.

This system was again run during summer 1999 for a 36km fine domain over the northeast quadrant of the US, while additional domains were added over the southern US, including a high-resolution 15km domain over the state of Texas.

Initial evaluations were conducted on forecasts made during the summer of 1998. Results show considerable agreement between ozone forecast by the modeling system and reported surface level ozone measurements. Four 5-day forecast cases have been analyzed and will be discussed at the conference.

In addition, we will present initial results from forecasts made during summer 1999, including forecasts relevant to the Philadelphia Urban-scale air pollution field experiment, and forecasts designed to assist "traditional" operational ozone forecast methods used in the state of Texas.

Finally, we will discuss prospects for the summer of 2000, address initial comparisons between our modeling system and NOAA's HYSPLIT system, and address the need for real-time ingest of atmospheric chemical initial and boundary conditions and updated emissions inventories.