Wind Energy Forecasts from MAPS through an Internet Decision Support Tool

The Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction system (MAPS) is a 4-d data assimilation and forecast model developed at NOAA's Forecast Systems Lab (FSL), implemented operationally as the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC2). MAPS is being used to provide hourly analyses and forecasts of winds used in determining available wind energy for several National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) test sites. Data provided to NREL scientists, disseminated through the Internet will help develop tools to improve the energy budget decision making process.

The MAPS forecast incorporates sophisticated turbulance parameterization, including explicit forecast of turbulance, using techniques developed by Burk and Thompson in 1979. The 40 km, 40 level MAPS model provides high vertical resolution near the surface with local roughness length making it well suited to wind forecasts at typical wind turbine levels (10-100 m above the surface). Verification of forecasts using observed winds at these test sites facilitates FSL modelers with valuable feedback regarding forecast accuracy and bias. Information will be presented both on the accuracy of the MAPS wind power potential forecasts and on the use of the Internet to provide this data to NREL and to wind energy managers.