Seasonal Smog Forecasting in New Brunswick, Canada

Since 1993, the New Brunswick Weather Centre, located in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, has been producing daily forecasts of smog (ground-level ozone) concentrations for the region of Southwestern New Brunswick. Initially the program consisted of an internal forecast shared with various stakeholders. This lead to the National Pilot Project conducted in 1997 and the first permanent air quality prediction program in Canada in 1998.

The long-range transport of ground-level ozone and its precursors from the heavily industrialized regions of Eastern North America frequently results in elevated concentrations of this offending pollutant. From mid-May through mid-October smog forecasts, issued twice daily, are delivered via the Environment Canada Communications Network. This unique program allows individuals, especially those suffering from heart or respiratory illnesses, to take the necessary steps to protect themselves, their families and the environment.

This paper will highlight Environment Canada’s Smog Prediction Program in New Brunswick, focusing on both the scientific objectives and technical aspects of the program itself. In addition a case study of the July 16-18, 1998 smog event will be addressed. The formation, evolution and transport of ozone during this event combined with the operational use of numerical (CHRONOS) and statistical (CANFIS) air quality models will be presented.

Future developments for the Air Quality Prediction Program in New Brunswick include the expansion of the daily smog forecasts to other regions of Atlantic Canada, the development, testing and implementation of ventilation coefficient prediction as well as research on particulate matter behavior.