Application of a Prognostic Model Validation System to Real-Time Dispersion Modeling

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory uses the U.S. Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System to supply high-resolution wind data for use in its real-time dispersion modeling system. ARAC has used COAMPS products to support several events and exercises, and COAMPS forecasts appear accurate, based on qualitative examination. Recently ARAC has developed a quantitative verification system which calculates COAMPS error and bias statistics, comparing COAMPS forecasts of various lengths with observational data. This paper shows how this system is used to guide ARAC operators, who need an estimate of the likely behavior of COAMPS forecasts of various lengths in different regions, seasons, and weather patterns.