Mesoscale Modeling Investigation of Convective Initiation on the Gulf Coast

The identification of convective initiation for the Gulf Coast is accomplished through the application of the MM5 model for several events from the summer of 1996. These events occurred in a weakly sheared environment and were, in some respects, related to the evolutionary characteristics of both sea-breeze circulations as well as the thermodynamic regime. Analysis of the events focuses on the initial distribution of moisture, kinematic flows, and the ability of the mesoscale model to adequately portray the true distributional nature of temperature and moisture conditions. Results are compared to an observational study conducted previously in which first convective initiates were observed for a variety of base state flows and resulting convective activity examined.