The Midwestern Climate Center Climate Profiler: An Internet-Based System for Interpreting Climate Outlooks

The long-lead outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) provide important information about potential changes in the climatic probabilities of temperature and precipitation over the course of the next month, season, or year. Unfortunately, many potential users of long-lead outlooks do not fully understand how to best use these products in their decision making. They need to receive information in terms relevant to their individual concerns, which may differ widely. In addition, some more climate-savvy individuals may wish to explore even more possibilities than those indicated by a single prediction. These users would appreciate an easy to use interactive system to facilitate these explorations. The Midwestern Climate Center (MCC) Climate Profiler provides the computational environment for a wide variety of users to better utilize climate outlooks in their decision making.

The MCC offers subscription data services to individuals, governments, and companies through the Midwestern Climate Information System (MICIS), which is available both as a telnet system and a Web-based system. Through MICIS, our subscribers access the MCC Climate Profiler. As currently configured, the Climate Profiler presents the user with tables of the probabilities for 18 temperature and precipitation variables to achieve certain thresholds when the CPC indicates a likelihood for below normal, normal, or above normal temperatures or precipitation amounts at a location. The new Climate Profiler will allow the user much more latitude to interactively request information relevant to their own concerns, including choosing the climate variable averages, extremes, frequencies of occurrence, and totals that fulfill their needs. In addition, the users of this system will also be able to shade the probabilities in directions not indicated by the CPC, including assumptions of persistence or reversal of the present situation, analog years, and arbitrarily selected changes in climatic conditions. All probablities will be generated from the observed record at stations with long histories of daily observations located closest to the place of interest. Feedback from users of the prototype second generation Climate Profiler will be used to improve features and documentation.