Forecasting Timing of Sea Breeze-Induced Thunderstorms at Cape Canaveral Air Station

The sea breeze and associated thunderstorms at Cape Canaveral, Florida, are studied to determine the timing of thunderstorms on station. Several statistical distribution functions are investigated and regression analyses performed using upper air data and surface observations over the past 50 years for the months from May through September. Morning RAOB data, u and v wind components at 850 mb, 700-mb and 600-mb winds, 800-mb to 600-mb mean relative humidity, and climatological timing of thunderstorms on station and combinations thereof are examined to develop a thunderstorm timing algorithm.

The resulting algorithm is compared to prior observations and is evaluated based on the ability to correctly time the occurrence of a thunderstorm over Cape Canaveral. Preliminary results indicate the algorithm shows promise in forecasting thunderstorms occurring on station within the customers expected margin of error. This new timing scheme can be used by the 45th Weather Squadron to improve forecast timing of thunderstorms.