P3.24
The quantitative precipitation forecasting problem associated with landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah and J. E. Molinari
The process whereby a tropical storm transitions into an extratropical cyclone is not fully understood. It is common to find weakening tropical storms that gradually transition into weak extratropical cyclones while continuing to dissipate slowly. However, a significant subset of transitioning tropical storms may reintensify rapidly after the preliminary weakening in response to middle latitude trough interactions. At issue is how to understand these interactions and anticipate which tropical cyclones will become likely candidates for significant reintensification after transition, considering these storms carry the potential to be destructive to life and property.
The precipitation characteristics of landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones will be discussed using both historical (e.g., Agnes 1972) and recent storms (e.g., Dennis, Floyd, and Irene 1999). A survey of such storms shows that the heaviest rainfall commonly lies to the left (usually to the west) of the storm track, although in a minority of cases the heaviest rainfall can be concentrated along or to the right of the track. Physical reasons for the observed distribution of precipitation relative to the storm track are advanced based on the nature of the interaction of the storm with the evolving larger-scale flow.
Poster Session 3, Extreme precipitation associated with Tropical Cyclones
Thursday, 18 January 2001, 1:30 PM-9:30 PM
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