16.5
Global Warming, Precipitation trends and the Hydrologic Cycle: An Assessment
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Madhav L. Khandekar, Unionville Consulting Meteorologist, Unionvilleo, ON, Canada
An important aspect of the present global warming debate is the hypothesis that in a warmer world the global hydrologic cycle will be intensified leading to increased incidences of extreme precipitation and floods. Several recent studies reported in recent literature have analyzed precipitation trends in different parts of the world in an attempt to assess the relationship between global warming, precipitation trends and the hydrologic cycle.
In this paper, observed precipitation and temperature trends on a continental, regional and local scales are closely examined. It is fount that the precipitation trends vary significantly from region to region and do not necessarily match with the corresponding temperature trends. Several examples of precipitation and temperature trends in various regions of the world will be presented and discussed in the context the global warming and the hydrologic cycle.
Based on available climate data, it is concluded that the hydrologic cycle does not appear to be intensifying at this point in time.
Session 16, Observed Variability and Change: Surface Part II (Parallel with Session 15 & Joint Session J1)
Thursday, 18 January 2001, 9:00 AM-11:44 AM
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