Upcoming changes to NCEP numerical forecast products

In the fall of 2000, Phase II of the NCEP Class VIII computer system will be delivered. The Phase II will consist of two 1024 processor IBM SP systems. One system will be dedicated to NCEP production and the other to model development and testing. The combined computational power of both systems is expected to be approximately 30 times the computation power of the Cray C90. This paper will summarize the changes in the NCEP production suite that are anticipated during 2001 on the Phase II system.

With the increase in the computational capacity of the Phase II system, increases in model resolution are expected for the RUC, Eta, and Global Spectral models. Any anticipated changes in forecast model output (additional fields, parameters, etc.) will be described.

Historically, as new computer systems are brought into production at NCEP there is an initial speed up in the delivery of forecast products to the National Weather Service Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG). As model enhancements are introduced, forecast product delivery times erode. These fluctuations can have a major impact on the end user of NCEP forecast products. Plans are being developed to determine the optimum delivery time for each forecast model and to sustain improved delivery times throughout the life cycle of all new computer system. These plans will be described.

Another area of concern is the dissemination of high resolution forecast grids. The volume of information available from the Phase II system will rapidly overwhelm both on-line disk storage and communications bandwidth. The availability of high resolution model grids will be discussed, with particular emphasis on any changes the increase in data volume will have on the current configuration of NCEP data servers.