Implementation of the National Weather Service River Forecast System in Nicaragua

During October 1998 Hurricane Mitch stalled over Central America, generating heavy, prolonged rainfall over a period of several days. The flooding and landslides caused devastating loss of life and property. Although the Central American nations attempted to deal with the disaster the scope of the devastation surpassed the capacity of these countries to respond. The international community responded with near-term assistance and a commitment to help the countries rebuild their infrastructures.

In working with the governments of the Central American nations most affected by the disaster, the United States has identified key focus areas for the Hurricane Mitch Reconstruction Effort. The disaster highlighted the problems that the meteorology and hydrology services in these countries were already attempting to deal with, including the need for additional training, new equipment, and an effective river forecasting system. The United States National Weather Service is helping these nations to rebuild and modernize their hydrometeorological observation networks and to mitigate future losses through the implementation of new forecasting tools and automated observing systems. The NWS is installing its River Forecast System (NWSRFS) in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras. The NWSRFS is a software system used by NWS River Forecast Centers to provide river forecasts and flooding potential to NWS Weather Forecast Offices.

This paper describes the ongoing implementation of the NWSRFS at the new Nicaraguan River Forecast Center in Managua, Nicaragua. The period of performance for the project is April 2000 through December 2001. The NWS conducted an initial implementation of the NWSRFS for the Rio Escondido basin during calendar year 2000. During the second year of the project the NWS will implement the database component, complete the calibration process for the Rio Escondido, and continue forecaster and systems administration training. The implementation approach includes the following activities, including model calibration for the Rio Escondido basin:

· Develop and document system design

· Implement batch subsystem

· Implement NWSRFS Graphical User Interface (GUI) subsystem

· Implement Local Operational Applications

· Data recovery

· Configure Operations Table

· Implement database management subsystem

· Calibrate NWSRFS

· Training

Training is integrated throughout the implementation process. The NWS, including the NWSRFS contractor has worked closely with the Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER) to assure that staff members will be qualified to operate the NWSRFS. By the end of the project the INETER staff will have gained valuable experience by participating in the NWSRFS calibration of the Rio Escondido. The INETER staff members working in the Nicaraguan River Forecast Center will understand the procedures for generating river forecasts and flood warning products. INETER’s effort to establish the Nicaraguan River Forecast Center is significant because it represents an understanding of the need for meteorologists and hydrologists to work together in an operational center to generate forecast guidance in support of flood warnings. The NWS is providing the tools and the training required to mitigate the losses associated with severe weather events such as Hurricane Mitch.