Application of a one-dimensional cloud and hail model to forecast maximum hailstone diameter for Mendoza, Argentina

A one-dimensional, steady-state cloud model is combined with a time-dependent hail growth model, to predict maximum hailstone diameter at the ground. The forecast hailstone diameters are compared with daily observations of maximum hail size for the Mendoza Hail Suppression Program in Argentina during the 1999-2000 hail season. The model displayed skill when forecasting hail as measured by the Heidke Skill Score, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Ratios on all hail days. Model performance for Mendoza is compared with the model performance for Alberta, Canada. The use of a simple cloud model as an operational forecasting tool, data stratification tool, and potential cloud seeding evaluation tool is also discussed.