2.5
Periods and its prediction in the coming 10 years in china
Fengying Wei, Chinese Academy of Meteorology Sciences, Beijing, China
The oscillations of multi-time scales and the processes of transformation of cold and warm periods over vast areas and 6 regions (Northeastern, North China, Changjiang River valley, South China, Southwestern, Northwestern) were analyzed with wavelet transformation and variance analysis by use of the temperature grade series during January 1911 to February 2001 . The predicting model for cold and warm period has been developed and cold and warm change in the coming 10 years is predicted. The results show that oscillations with around 30-40 years were the strongest in the last 100 years oscillations and the oscillations with 3 years in both winter and summer were also strongest, especially in winter. The beginning year of transformation of cold and warm periods in winter was not synchronizes with that of annual mean, but its the difference between summer and annual mean was less. The processes of transformation of 6 regions are different, their main character is that the beginning year of significant warming occurred around 1980s-1990s was very different between the southern part and the northern of China. It is found that the stronger oscillation with 3 years cause the cooling in Northeast China in a couple of past winter. The predictions for 2001-2010 by means of the model show that the warming trend started from 1980s-1990s period will decrease slightly but the temperature in the coming 10 years in China will be still warmer than that period.. The temperature in winter will be a little colder than now over vast area of China after 2005.
Session 2, Topics in Probability and Statistics for the Atmospheric Sciences
Monday, 14 January 2002, 3:30 PM-4:45 PM
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