2002 Annual

Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 2:15 PM
Tools for model interpretation in the Interactive Forecast Preparation System
Timothy R. Boyer, SAIC, Beltsville, MD; and D. P. Ruth
Poster PDF (95.4 kB)
The National Weather Service (NWS) is currently implementing an Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) that assists forecasters in creating forecast products. With IFPS, forecasters work with a suite of weather element grids to produce a digital forecast database from which official NWS products are derived. IFPS provides many graphical tools to create digital forecasts. IFPS interpretation tools enable forecasters to tailor model guidance by interactively adjusting weather element thresholds that are used to produce sensible weather grids.

This paper describes new developments and the future direction of model interpretation in IFPS. With model interpretation, forecasters never edit model grids directly. Instead, they manipulate a variety of different slider bar tools that modify thresholds which are then used to reinterpret the guidance. This concept is discussed. As model interpretation is but one tool that can be used to interact with the digital forecast, a short description of the model interpretation technique's relation to the overall IFPS will be presented.

The model interpretation technique is continually being enhanced. The technique software package was recently ported to the Linux operating system, and currently runs on low-cost pentium-based computer hardware. New features have also been added. These include model blending of forecast guidance grids through time. Parameter weighting is a method that allows model surface and upper air parameter grids to be used to adjust sensible weather element fields. One of the latest improvements to the model interpretation technique is grid deformation. Deformation is a tool that uses graphical manipulation of contours as a way of targeting adjustments to specific areas of the grid. Proposed future improvements of the IFPS model interpretation technique are also presented.

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