In this demonstration study, a prototype air quality forecast modeling system (AQFMS) was run to provide experimental 18-hr air quality forecasts for the Northeast United States. The experimental forecasts were in part, envisioned to provide assistance in planning and operational deployments in the PMTACS-NY Supersite Summer 2001 Field Intensive. The goal was to provide daily 18-hr air quality forecasts on the web for the region and the New York metropolitan area specifically, from July 1 through August 31, 2001.

The prototype AQFMS was designed to operate with forecasted meteorological fields from either of two mesoscale meteorological models, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 or the ETA-SKIRON meteorological model, University of Athens. The meteorological fields are used to drive the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), a photochemical air quality simulation model, to provide two distinctive air quality forecasts. Emissions used in the AQFMS are based on revised OTAG anthropogenic emissions and BEIS-II biogenic emissions. The current application did not use prognostic meteorological data to drive affected emissions sources.

The details of the AQFMS and our operational experience with the system over this past summer are discussed. Preliminary evaluations of air quality predictions from the two operational forecasts are presented based on observations available in the region. The performance characteristics of the two operational air quality forecasts are analyzed considering potential differences in critical meteorological parameters forecasted and systematic biases that point towards limitations in the chemical transport model.