83rd Annual

Monday, 10 February 2003
Weekday Ozone Forecasting by the JSU Meteorology Program for the MS DEQ
Paul J. Croft, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and C. Simmons, J. Shoemake, J. Beasley, and M. Watts
Ozone forecasting has been initiated by the JSU Meteorology Program through contract work with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MS DEQ). This pilot project is focused on concerns of elevated ozone concentrations during the summer season in Mississippi because of proposed air quality standards by the United States EPA. Daily ozone forecasts are now made by Meteorology Staff at Jackson State University and consider both atmospheric effects and ozone chemistry. The forecasts provide guidance to the MS DEQ as to expected development and/or transport of high ozone and/or precursor elements. The forecast format includes an outlook for “Day 1” (tomorrow) as well as the two following days and predicts whether air quality will be good, moderate, or unhealthy in four regions of the state. Forecasts being made during the spring, summer, and fall of 2002 will be analyzed through a verification analysis study to be conducted during the winter. Emphases will be on the probability of detection and false alarm ratio of the forecasts as well as isolation of the most critical factors to elevated ozone values in Mississippi.

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