Tuesday, 11 February 2003
SIMULATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI FLOOD OF MAY 810th, 1995 WITH A PENN STATE/NCAR MESOSCALE MODEL (MM5) AND GIS/RS TECHNOLOGY
The NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale model (MM5) is used to study the effects of warm sea surface temperature anomalies, sea surface pressures and winds on the precipitation characteristics of The Historic Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi flood activity during May 8-10th, 1995. Mesoscale model simulations are used for forecasting and to perceive better understanding of the physics associated with the flood event. Each component is modified to accommodate the detailed study of the flood event. For the preliminary model run, a doubly nested domain centered over the Central Gulf of Mexico with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km is employed. MM5 is run for every 6 hr periods, from the initial storm development - May 8th and through May 10th. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used for constructing the initial and boundary conditions. Later simulations use GIS/Remote sensing data for model initializations. Model simulations are then compared with the satellite and synoptic observations. In this regard GIS, with its ability to pull spatial data from different sources into an integrated environment, coupled with Remote Sensing is used to evaluate and analyze multiple data layers and attributes. A major goal now is to unify our understanding of similar historic events into a more comprehensive Integrative framework from different disciplines meteorology, marine biology, environmental sciences etc, and develop a system of Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment for the Gulf Coast, which is ultimately used for operational use.