Tuesday, 11 February 2003
Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill for selected tropical cyclone forecast models during Hurricane Irene (1999)
The purpose of this study is to investigate quantitative precipitation forecast [QPF] skill for operational models routinely used for tropical cyclone forecasting. The case of Hurricane Irene (1999) is explored using both the AVN and GFDL model forecasts. Model-forecasted precipitation amounts are verified using surface rainfall observations and TRMM satellite data. Individual model performance is evaluated relative to the Rainfall - CLimatology and PERsistence model (R-CLIPER) developed by Marks (2002) and using the current operational methodology for tropical storm rainfall forecasts. Finally, the skill will be scrutinized in light of the track forecast error.