Tuesday, 11 February 2003: 3:30 PM
Toward a Science Infusion Strategy for NWS Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (PQPF)
The National Weather Service is developing a science infusion and implementation strategy to produce probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) information (and other hydrologic forcing variables) for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) program. The resulting PQPF process will be an integrated system to produce a seamless suite of consistent products for lead times ranging from nowcasts out to a year. The plan will define how different laboratories and centers can work together to meet these requirements. The PQPF system begins with precipitation ensemble forecasts from different atmospheric models. Then, statistical post-processing of NWS ensemble forecasts is required to remove biases, assure valid probabilities and possibly improve the resolution (i.e. skill or sharpness) of the forecasts. The plan also considers of forecasters (HPC, CPC and RFC/HAS) to add value to the forecasts and the man/machine interactive tools to support the forecaster role. Local ensemble processing systems will ingest the PQPF forecast information, do additional re-scaling and downscaling, and provide the detailed ensemble forcing data required by local hydrologic forecast procedures. The plan identifies science issues and proposes strategies to address them at different NWS laboratories and centers. It also envisages that linkages with the USWRP, the USGCRP and other agencies can be developed and used to accelerate science infusion from the scientific community into NWS operations.