Tuesday, 11 February 2003: 2:59 PM
Nonlinear Diagnostics of Weather Regimes in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting Model
Artificial neural networks are applied to perform nonlinear
weather regime diagnostics for the ECMWF seasonal forecasting
system. The focus is on possible nonlinear low-dimensional
structure of the extratropical atmospheric flow (particularly
the NAO and PNA). Primary diagnostic techniques are cluster
analysis (mixture model clustering) and two different nonlinear
extensions of principal component analysis (NLPCA) using
neural networks, that is, Kramer's feedforward network technique
and nonlinear kernel-PCA. In order to assess the realism of the
ECWMF model our results are compared with those from observational
data.
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