Tuesday, 11 February 2003
Information and Products Derived From Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts
In an effort to generate more informative streamflow forecasts, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed an ensemble probabilistic forecasting system. However, the question of how to disseminate the forecasts to end users so that they can understand the probabilistic streamflow forecasts and make decisions using them remains unanswered. In an effort to answer this question, numerous methods of displaying the probabilistic forecasts have been examined for both their advantages and disadvantages. The methods include those currently available to forecasters at the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) via the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Analysis and Display Program (ESPADP) and those requested by forecasters and end users that are being used in a demonstration mode. Additionally, other methods of displaying the forecasts have been analyzed. The end product of this research is a suite of displays that will be made available to end users to assists in their decision making process.