83rd Annual

Tuesday, 11 February 2003
Statistical forecast on precipitation over Taiwan area during typhoon invasion using GMS-5 data
Peter Da-Gang Pan, Weather Center Weather Wing, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. P. Lu
Poster PDF (141.0 kB)
Of all natural disasters occurring in Taiwan, typhoons are the most series. Statistics over the past 20 years has indicated that Taiwan was hit by an average of less than four typhoons annually. The strong wind and heavy precipitation associated with typhoons significantly affect the living and sometimes threaten human lives. The mesoscale topography associated with Central Mountain Range (CMR) complicates the wind and precipitation forecast issues.

In this study we collected typhoon data that attacked Taiwan since 1990. By classifying the invading direction from Northwestern Pacific and South China Sea, we obtained 9 and 8 typhoons from two groups respectively.Total samples amount to 75 were used in the study. Using GMS 5 data, we first derived the parameters such as minimum brightness temperature, mean brightness temperature, standard deviation of brightness temperature and cloud area and cover from satellite data covering the typhoon circulation. Along the distance of 25 km, 50 km, 100 km and 200 km between typhoon and Taiwan land area, observation data were used to test the correlation between satellite parameters and precipitation obtained from statistical results. This study and its on-going research are aimed to provide an objective method using geostationary satellite parameters to forecast the wind strength and precipitation as typhoon invades Taiwan.

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