83rd Annual

Tuesday, 11 February 2003
Development of Model Output Statistics (MOS) wind guidance for the marine environment
Christopher McAloon, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
The Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) provides statistical weather forecast guidance for approximately 1430 stations in the United States. Based on an application of the Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach, the guidance provides users with forecasts of various weather elements. MDL is in the development stages of expanding its suite of stations to include 118 marine sites. The new stations are buoys and Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) sites located along the coast of the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes. Observational data required for the statistical development has been obtained from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC). The forecast guidance at these additional 118 stations will be based on Aviation (AVN) model output. Guidance will be generated for all four cycles of the AVN, i.e., 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. Forecast projections will be every 3 hours, extending from 6-84 hours. Statistical forecast guidance for surface wind speed and direction will be the first product developed and implemented operationally.

The primary benefactor of the additional forecast guidance in coastal and Great Lakes regions will be National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters. This guidance will be incorporated into the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) for use on an operational basis. It is hoped that the additional detail provided by this guidance will contribute to forecasts of improved spatial resolution. MOS guidance will also prove useful for interests in the fishing, shipping, and cruise industries, as well as the Coast Guard and other mariners.

Future endeavors by MDL look toward cooperation with other organizations in obtaining additional observational data sets for development of statistical guidance. Potential partners include the National Ocean Service, as well as Environment Canada. Cooperation with these groups will provide the potential for further expansion of the total number of stations for which MOS guidance is provided. It is also likely that future developments will include the variables of temperature, dewpoint temperature, and at select locations, visibility. This additional guidance will prove invaluable in equipping NWS forecasters with the tools necessary to improve coastal forecasts.

This talk describes the developmental process for generating forecast equations for wind speed and direction at the new marine sites. As part of the developmental process, test forecasts are made and verified. These results are also presented. In addition, comparisons are made between direct model output, current NGM MOS marine guidance, and the new AVN-based MOS marine guidance.

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