Tuesday, 11 February 2003: 11:15 AM
An adaptive nonlinear MOS scheme for precipitation forecasts using neural networks
A novel neural network (NN) based scheme performs
nonlinear Model Output Statistics (MOS) for generating
precipitation forecasts from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
model output. The scheme requires minimal past data to
establish the MOS connection, and adapts itself to the
temporal changes in the NWP model. The method is demonstrated
in three numerical experiments using the NCEP reanalysis data in
the Alaskan peninsula and the coastal region of British Columbia.
Its performance is compared to that of a conventional NN-based
non-adaptive scheme. When the new adaptive method is employed,
the degradation in the precipitation forecast skills due to
changes in the NWP model is small, and is much less
than the degradation for the conventional non-adaptive scheme.
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