Thursday, 13 February 2003: 4:15 PM
Evolution of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific during 2002–03
The classic signatures of El Nino--warming sea surface
temperatures, weakening trade winds, and shifts in Pacific
rainfall patterns--were detected in the tropical Pacific in
early 2002. These conditions developed erraticly, being
modulated by episodic westerly wind events associated
with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In contrast to the onset
of the 1997-98 El Nino, warming in 2002 was less intense
and less rapid to develop. However, by mid-year, most ENSO
forecast models predicted that warm conditions would be
sustained in the tropical Pacific through early 2003. This
presentation reviews the current status of evolving El Nino
conditions using data from the TAO/TRITON array of moored
buoys and other elements of the ENSO Observing System.
Development of these conditions will be compared with
previous El Ninos and interpreted in light of recent theories. Implications for our understanding of ENSO cycle dynamics will be discussed.
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