Thursday, 13 February 2003
Studying MPI with numerical models
Theoretical investigation of maximum possible hurricane intensity were
started by the efforts of Kleinschmidt (1951) and Malkus and Riehl (1960).
Further refinements in what is commonly referred to as maximum potential
intensity (MPI) theory have occurred to the present day by various researchers;
each potential improvement in theory leading to improved understanding on the
factors that influence or are influenced by hurricane intensity. Since none
of the extant theories rely on the physics of vortex asymmetries beyond
possible parameterization of their net impact on the axisymmetric vortex,
numerical simulation of the hurricane in an axisymmetric framework can prove
fruitful to test the sensitivities of these MPI theories. Comparison of the
theory of Emanuel (1995) with simulations using the Rotunno and Emanuel (1987)
model have exposed physics of the hurricane that permit MPI to be exceeded.
The incorporation of a second source of heat for the eyewall, namely the
large latent heats of the low-level eye, basically confirms the Carnot
engine picture of the hurricane, but it also raises other issues. Of particular
interest is the role of azimuthal eddies on the inner edge of the eyewall
that appear to be the primary advectors of latent heat to the eyewall.
These azimuthal eddies exist at the breakdown of an azimuthal vortex sheet.
An analogous situation that certainly exists in real hurricanes is the existence
of vertical eddies at the inner edge of the eyewall due to the existence of
barotropic instability, an instability that cannot be realized in the model
due to the constraints of axisymmetry. Further investigation with the
axisymmetric model will continue to prove useful, but the study of MPI is
soon at the point where three-dimensional considerations cannot be long ignored.
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