83rd Annual

Tuesday, 11 February 2003: 8:30 AM
Assessing the Needs of Users warm season of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in Colorado
Rebecca Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Poster PDF (37.3 kB)
Recently, the U.S. National Weather Service and the U.S. Weather Research program have identified improving quantitative precipitation forecasts(QPFs) as a major goal for the next 5-10 years. The emphasis on improving QPFs was motivated in part by a general understanding of the importance of precipitation-related information to society, in areas such as flood forecasting, water resource management, and agriculture. However, QPFs can be improved in a number of ways, and different types of improvements are likely to lead to different benefits. Furthermore, achieving different QPF improvements can require different research and operational efforts.

To provide additional information about which improvements in QPFs are likely to benefit society the most, this study is performing an in-depth assessment of the needs of users of warm season QPFs along the Colorado Front Range. Data is being collected and synthesized from several sources, including meteorology, hydrology, and other relevant literature; interviews with users and providers of QPFs; and a survey of user communities. Preliminary results suggest that the most important aspects of QPF depend on the user and the forecast lead time, and that the needs of even individual users can vary greatly in space and time. Although the current study focuses on a specific region and season to allow a detailed, complete assessment, some of the information obtained will be relevant to other regions, and similar studies could be implemented elsewhere or for other types of forecasts.

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