A.D.O.N.I.S. and Ensembles in a Big, "Non-Technical" Market

While Philadelphia, the nations’ 4th largest market, featured 2 of the first 3 AMS Seal holders way back in the 60s, the meteorological level of weathercasting actually declined through the 70s and 80s. The dominant #1 station set the trend, with non-meteorologists doing weather in front of magnetic maps, featuring smiling faces as highs and frowning faces as lows to this very day. There were no satellite or radar pictures shown until a few years ago. The weather forecast on weekends was given by the anchor until only a few years ago. That station is still perhaps the most dominant and profitable O & O in the country. Since the dominant station often sets the trends, the market as a whole has been affected by them for a long time. As of 1999, not a single station had its own radar (of any type), and only 7 of the 18 weathercasters even claim to be meteorologists. Given this background, Philadelphia would be one of the last places new technologies and scientific explanations of weather would be accepted. Yet, the introduction of Fly-bys in 1992 changed the market dramatically. Now, at least 3 stations use “future weather” regularly. NBC10 was the first with the fly-bys and future weather (ADONIS), and occasionally even gets into ensemble forecasting and explanations on air. When the weather gets bad, our ratings skyrocket. We feel that futurecasting is very valuable to us in explaining weather and justifying our forecast. Even going on-air and disagreeing with our own model is done occasionally, and is found useful. The conclusion is: even in perhaps the most backward market in the country, fly-bys, futurecasting, and even talk of ensembles has become more than just accepted-it draws viewers. If we can get away with using the new technologies, anyone can. The author will show videotape examples of weathercasts as they evolved in the 90s, use of ADONIS during Hurricane Floyd and winter weather, plus the use of ensemble data during Hurricane Dennis.