6B.5
Medium-Range forecast of tropical storm genesis in a T63 Coupled GCM
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
The present study examines the predictability of tropical storm genesis generated by a T63 coupled GCM. Although a T63 resolution seems to be too coarse to capture properly the physical structure of a tropical storm, a T63 Coupled GCM displays significant skill in forecasting the genesis of a tropical storm up to 10 days in advance. An increase in the resolution of the Atmospheric GCM does not improve significantly the skill of the forecast. On the other hand the coupling with an Ocean Circulation GCM has a very significant impact on the skill of the forecast.
Session 6B, Tropical cyclogenesis I (Parallel with Sessions 6A and J3)
Wednesday, 24 May 2000, 1:45 PM-2:45 PM
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